hidden confounding
Addressing Hidden Confounding with Heterogeneous Observational Datasets for Recommendation
The collected data in recommender systems generally suffers selection bias. Considerable works are proposed to address selection bias induced by observed user and item features, but they fail when hidden features (e.g., user age or salary) that affect both user selection mechanism and feedback exist, which is called hidden confounding. To tackle this issue, methods based on sensitivity analysis and leveraging a few randomized controlled trial (RCT) data for model calibration are proposed. However, the former relies on strong assumptions of hidden confounding strength, whereas the latter relies on the expensive RCT data, thereby limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we propose to employ heterogeneous observational data to address hidden confounding, wherein some data is subject to hidden confounding while the remaining is not.
When to Act and When to Ask: Policy Learning With Deferral Under Hidden Confounding
We consider the task of learning how to act in collaboration with a human expert based on observational data. The task is motivated by high-stake scenarios such as healthcare and welfare where algorithmic action recommendations are made to a human expert, opening the option of deferring making a recommendation in cases where the human might act better on their own. This task is especially challenging when dealing with observational data, as using such data runs the risk of hidden confounders whose existence can lead to biased and harmful policies. However, unlike standard policy learning, the presence of a human expert can mitigate some of these risks. We build on the work of Mozannar and Sontag (2020) on consistent surrogate loss for learning with the option of deferral to an expert, where they solve a cost-sensitive supervised classification problem. Since we are solving a causal problem, where labels don't exist, we use a causal model to learn costs which are robust to a bounded degree of hidden confounding.
Quantifying Ignorance in Individual-Level Causal-Effect Estimates under Hidden Confounding
Jesson, Andrew, Mindermann, Sören, Gal, Yarin, Shalit, Uri
We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from high-dimensional, observational data with unobserved confounders. Unobserved confounders introduce ignorance -- a level of unidentifiability -- about an individual's response to treatment by inducing bias in CATE estimates. We present a new parametric interval estimator suited for high-dimensional data, that estimates a range of possible CATE values when given a predefined bound on the level of hidden confounding. Further, previous interval estimators do not account for ignorance about the CATE stemming from samples that may be underrepresented in the original study, or samples that violate the overlap assumption. Our novel interval estimator also incorporates model uncertainty so that practitioners can be made aware of out-of-distribution data. We prove that our estimator converges to tight bounds on CATE when there may be unobserved confounding, and assess it using semi-synthetic, high-dimensional datasets.